Introduction
In the ever-shifting landscape of commercial real estate and financial markets, paying attention to critical benchmarks is more important than ever, especially in uncertain markets like this. Here at the Phoenix Capital Markets Team at Transwestern, we're always on the lookout for those telltale signs that we can use in guiding our clients in making the right moves when it comes to projecting the future of their underwriting. We pride ourselves on being able to spot leading indicators that pave the way for success. In this article, we will embark on a journey through the key elements that shape this industry and their potential ramifications. While the future remains elusive, delving into these factors is essential for understanding the ever-changing commercial real estate market.
From Sidelines to Stability: Big Money Waits on the Sidelines While the Economy Stabilizes to a New Norm
A staggering $811 billion of global equity lies on the sidelines, akin to dry powder, patiently anticipating a great financial crisis like correction in commercial real estate. Institutional capital, in particular, waits for the right moment to pounce on investment opportunities that may arise.
After weathering tumultuous supply chain disruptions, the industry is finally witnessing subsidence. Producer costs have reached a state of equilibrium, and in some cases, even decreased. This newfound stability has had an outsized effect on curbing inflation, currently resting at a modest 3 percent—the lowest level observed in over two years. This decrease bodes well for the commercial real estate market as well as the consumer.
Unattractive interest rates have led property owners to adopt a wait-and-see approach. They are hesitant to sell assets when they have secured favorable loan rates, thereby avoiding exchanging into properties with higher interest rates. This has virtually extinguished the 1031 market. This phenomenon, prevalent in both residential and commercial real estate, has contributed to decreased velocity within the industry.
The US economy has had an outsized impact in the big medical and big government industries, constituting roughly 53 percent of the US economy. Unaffected by interest rate sensitivity, these sectors remain robust, helping to foster a low unemployment rate of 3.6 percent as of June 2023.
The Federal Reserve's Misaligned Projection
With forward looking assumptions indicating a future rate of 5.25 percent-5.5 percent for the Federal Reserve's funds rate by the end of 2023, skepticism arises regarding their alignment with the current economic climate. Inflation sits at its lowest point in two years, while unemployment remains impressively low. This incongruity challenges the Fed's forecasting accuracy and suggests that the current conditions warrant cautious optimism rather than hastened interest rate increases
"While we may not possess a crystal ball or claim to be economists, we can navigate these shifting tides with expertise and resilience, seizing opportunities as they arise"
Red Flags: Speculative Office Development and Loan Maturities
As the economy gradually stabilizes, certain factors will inevitably impact the commercial real estate sector. Two primary concerns loom on the horizon for the office sector—the risks associated with speculative office development and the upcoming maturities of office loans. In 2023, a staggering $140 billion of office debt will come due, potentially setting the stage for an intricate dance between borrowers and lenders. This ticking time bomb demands careful attention from banks across the country.
An intriguing disconnect emerges as job growth surges beyond 2019 levels while demand for office space dwindles. Traditionally, these two metrics have exhibited a close correlation. However, the current deviation raises an important question: will the work-from-home model become the new norm or will office space demand eventually revert to its previous levels? This uncertainty presents a significant challenge for lenders and property owners alike.
Although opinions may differ, we personally believe a hybrid work-from-home model is here to stay. Remote work appeals to employees, attracting a wider talent pool and enabling companies to allocate freed-up capital toward enhancing their products and services. While the specific circumstances of each company determine the degree to which they adopt remote work or hybrid models, the trajectory points toward an increasing number of firms embracing these alternatives, thereby further impacting the demand for office spaces. Also, real estate is most companies' second biggest liability only behind payroll - this model frees up capital for businesses to pursue other places to place capital.
Multifamily Development and Industrial Speculation
Multifamily development has experienced a notable upswing across the U.S. Commercial real estate debt totaling $4.4 trillion looms large, with half of this sum tied to multifamily properties. Additionally, the surge of speculative industrial property development, combined with the global surge in e-commerce and the US government's emphasis on domestic manufacturing, alleviates concerns regarding their impact.
Conclusion
As experts in the real estate field, we acknowledge that the commercial real estate market is subject to the influence of multifaceted factors. However, forecasting the precise outcomes of these factors remains an elusive endeavor. It is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable, closely monitoring the unfolding trends within this dynamic landscape. While we may not possess a crystal ball or claim to be economists, we can navigate these shifting tides with expertise and resilience, seizing opportunities as they arise.
